Moscow Journal: Book Gives Russians Close-Up of American Minutiae





MOSCOW — After 20 years of opining on weighty bilateral issues like NATO expansion and ballistic missile defense, the political analyst Nikolai V. Zlobin recently found himself trying to explain, for an uncomprehending Russian readership, the American phenomenon of the teenage baby sitter.




In Russia, children are raised by their grandmothers, or, if their grandmothers are not available, by women of the same generation in a similar state of unremitting vigilance against the hazards — like weather — that arise in everyday life. An average Russian mother would no sooner entrust her children’s upbringing to a local teenager than to a pack of wild dogs.


But of course much in everyday American life sounds bizarre to Russians, as Mr. Zlobin documents meticulously in his 400-page book, “America — What a Life!”


It seems strange, 20 years after the fall of the Iron Curtain, that ordinary Russians would still be hungry for details about how ordinary Americans eat and pay mortgages. But to Mr. Zlobin’s surprise, his book — published this year and marketed as a guide to Russians considering a move abroad — is already in its fifth print run, and his publisher has commissioned a second volume.


With the neutrality of a field anthropologist dispatched to suburbia, Mr. Zlobin scrutinizes the American practice of interrogating complete strangers about the details of their pregnancies; their weird habit of leaving their curtains open at night, when a Russian would immediately seal himself off from the prying eyes of his neighbors. Why Americans do not lie, for the most part. Why they cannot drink hard liquor. Why they love laws but disdain their leaders.


“The secret is that everyone wants to know what America is without its ideological blanket,” said Mr. Zlobin, who has lived in the United States on and off for 20 years and serves, at times, as an informal consultant to the Kremlin. “Originally I thought you had to watch the important issues, but it turns out what matters are the very basic ones.”


He is not the first Russian to engage in this exercise. In 1935, Ilya Ilf and Yevgeny Petrov, Soviet satirists, embarked on a road trip across the United States. Their book, “One-Story America,” described its residents’ earnestness (“Americans never say anything they do not mean”) their provinciality (“curiosity is almost absent”) and the ubiquity of advertising, which, they wrote, “followed us all over America, convincing us, begging us, persuading us, and demanding of us that we chew ‘Wrigley’s,’ the flavored, incomparable, first-class gum.”


That book, published less than two decades after the Bolshevik Revolution, was a touch subversive because it did not focus on the class struggle, then the Kremlin’s central talking point about the United States.


Mr. Zlobin is writing at a moment when state-controlled television casts the United States as a global bully, releasing waves of turbulence on the world and covertly undermining President Vladimir V. Putin. Mr. Zlobin does not make much effort to advance that thesis, instead suggesting, in his soft way, that Russian leaders would benefit from understanding what Americans are like.


“I often get appeals for help in Washington — ‘Get to know so and so,’ they tell me, naming some public figure, ‘We need to solve this problem,’ ” he writes. “It is difficult to explain that in the United States, in most cases, problems are not solved this way.”


Mr. Zlobin, who has lived in St. Louis, Chapel Hill, N.C., and Washington, finds his answers in middle-class neighborhoods that most Europeans never see. Readers have peppered him with questions about his chapter about life on a cul-de-sac. Most Russians grew up in dense housing blocks, where children ran wild in closed central courtyards. Cul-de-sac translates in Russian as tupik — a word that evokes vulnerability and danger, a dead end with no escape.


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New leaks suggest Microsoft Office for iOS could launch soon






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Tom Cruise: I'm Spending Christmas with My Kids















12/10/2012 at 05:15 PM EST







Tom Cruise at the London premiere of Jack Reacher Dec. 10


Dave M. Benett/WireImage


It's shaping up to be a very merry Christmas for Tom Cruise.

Looking upbeat and winter-warm in a navy sweater and jeans at the London premiere of his new crime thriller Jack Reacher on Monday, the actor, 50, spoke to reporters for the first time since his split from Katie Holmes.

"We have got lots of very special things planned [for the holidays]," said Cruise. He added that he plans to spend Christmas with his kids Bella, 20, Connor, 17, and Suri, 6. "We are all going to be together. I am looking forward to it."

Based in London since August while he shoots the sci-fi action film All You Need Is Kill, Cruise says he feels right at home across the pond.

"I love it here," he tells PEOPLE. "I have made so many films here and I have worked with so many of the actors here. It is a wonderful place to live."

Make that live and work. "I am shooting a film over here … seven days a week. But I feel great," he added. "It doesn't take up all my time, but I have a very busy schedule and I like it that way."

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Surprise: New insurance fee in health overhaul law


WASHINGTON (AP) — Your medical plan is facing an unexpected expense, so you probably are, too. It's a new, $63-per-head fee to cushion the cost of covering people with pre-existing conditions under President Barack Obama's health care overhaul.


The charge, buried in a recent regulation, works out to tens of millions of dollars for the largest companies, employers say. Most of that is likely to be passed on to workers.


Employee benefits lawyer Chantel Sheaks calls it a "sleeper issue" with significant financial consequences, particularly for large employers.


"Especially at a time when we are facing economic uncertainty, (companies will) be hit with a multi-million dollar assessment without getting anything back for it," said Sheaks, a principal at Buck Consultants, a Xerox subsidiary.


Based on figures provided in the regulation, employer and individual health plans covering an estimated 190 million Americans could owe the per-person fee.


The Obama administration says it is a temporary assessment levied for three years starting in 2014, designed to raise $25 billion. It starts at $63 and then declines.


Most of the money will go into a fund administered by the Health and Human Services Department. It will be used to cushion health insurance companies from the initial hard-to-predict costs of covering uninsured people with medical problems. Under the law, insurers will be forbidden from turning away the sick as of Jan. 1, 2014.


The program "is intended to help millions of Americans purchase affordable health insurance, reduce unreimbursed usage of hospital and other medical facilities by the uninsured and thereby lower medical expenses and premiums for all," the Obama administration says in the regulation. An accompanying media fact sheet issued Nov. 30 referred to "contributions" without detailing the total cost and scope of the program.


Of the total pot, $5 billion will go directly to the U.S. Treasury, apparently to offset the cost of shoring up employer-sponsored coverage for early retirees.


The $25 billion fee is part of a bigger package of taxes and fees to finance Obama's expansion of coverage to the uninsured. It all comes to about $700 billion over 10 years, and includes higher Medicare taxes effective this Jan. 1 on individuals making more than $200,000 per year or couples making more than $250,000. People above those threshold amounts also face an additional 3.8 percent tax on their investment income.


But the insurance fee had been overlooked as employers focused on other costs in the law, including fines for medium and large firms that don't provide coverage.


"This kind of came out of the blue and was a surprisingly large amount," said Gretchen Young, senior vice president for health policy at the ERISA Industry Committee, a group that represents large employers on benefits issues.


Word started getting out in the spring, said Young, but hard cost estimates surfaced only recently with the new regulation. It set the per capita rate at $5.25 per month, which works out to $63 a year.


America's Health Insurance Plans, the major industry trade group for health insurers, says the fund is an important program that will help stabilize the market and mitigate cost increases for consumers as the changes in Obama's law take effect.


But employers already offering coverage to their workers don't see why they have to pony up for the stabilization fund, which mainly helps the individual insurance market. The redistribution puts the biggest companies on the hook for tens of millions of dollars.


"It just adds on to everything else that is expected to increase health care costs," said economist Paul Fronstin of the nonprofit Employee Benefit Research Institute.


The fee will be assessed on all "major medical" insurance plans, including those provided by employers and those purchased individually by consumers. Large employers will owe the fee directly. That's because major companies usually pay upfront for most of the health care costs of their employees. It may not be apparent to workers, but the insurance company they deal with is basically an agent administering the plan for their employer.


The fee will total $12 billion in 2014, $8 billion in 2015 and $5 billion in 2016. That means the per-head assessment would be smaller each year, around $40 in 2015 instead of $63.


It will phase out completely in 2017 — unless Congress, with lawmakers searching everywhere for revenue to reduce federal deficits — decides to extend it.


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Wall Street gets small lift from technology and McDonald's

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Stocks edged higher on Monday as technology shares bounced back after recent weakness and McDonald's posted strong monthly sales.


Technology stocks were led by Hewlett-Packard Co , which climbed 2.6 percent to $14.16 on rumors that activist investor Carl Icahn is building a stake in the PC maker. The stock is down 44.5 percent for the year and ranks as the Dow's worst performer. The S&P technology index <.gspt> was up 0.3 percent.


Tech also was supported by Cisco Systems , which gained 2.4 percent to $19.79 after the company presented its midterm growth strategy on Friday.


McDonald's Corp gave the Dow a jolt, gaining 1.1 percent to $89.41, as its November sales were stronger than expected and showed a bounce back from a decline in October.


There was little news Monday about the negotiations over the "fiscal cliff," a series of automatic tax hikes and spending cuts that could hurt economic growth next year. Concerns that lawmakers will not broker a deal have kept a lid on optimism in the equity market.


"There is a general sense that if a deal is struck, that we could have a further advance in the market at the end of this year as well as the first part of next year," said Michael Sheldon, chief market strategist at RDM Financial in Westport, Connecticut.


A breakout to the upside on a cliff deal could take the S&P 500 back up to 1,474, just off the 2012 high for the index, said Elliot Spar, Stifel Nicolaus option market strategist in Shrewsbury, New Jersey.


The benchmark S&P 500 index has yet to see a move greater than 0.5 percent in either direction on any day in December, and hasn't moved more than 1 percent either way in any session since November 23. However, the market has regained most of the losses incurred post-election as investors refocused on the fiscal cliff.


U.S. President Barack Obama met with Republican House Speaker John Boehner on Sunday to negotiate a budget deal. A Boehner aide said Monday that talks are continuing.


The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> rose 14.75 points, or 0.11 percent, to 13,169.88 at the close. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> inched up just 0.48 of a point, or 0.03 percent, to 1,418.55. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> advanced 8.92 points, or 0.30 percent, to close at 2,986.96.


News out of Italy kept sentiment in check as Prime Minister Mario Monti said he would resign after the approval of the 2013 budget. The move added to uncertainty about progress being made to tackle the euro zone's debt problem and drove Italy's borrowing costs higher.


U.S.-listed shares of Nexen jumped 13.8 percent to $26.77 and the stock was the second-most actively traded on the New York Stock Exchange. On Friday, Canada approved a $15.1 billion bid by CNOOC Ltd for energy company Nexen.


The S&P materials index <.gspm> gained 0.7 percent and led the S&P 500's sector index gains as shares of mining companies rose in sync with copper and gold prices. Shares of Freeport-McMoRan gained 1.1 percent to $32.04.


Volume was roughly 5.3 billion shares traded on the NYSE, the Nasdaq and the NYSE MKT, compared with the year-to-date average daily closing volume of roughly 6.5 billion.


Advancers outnumbered decliners on the NYSE by a ratio of about 17 to 13, while on the Nasdaq, seven stocks rose for every five that fell.


(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Additional reporting by Doris Frankel in Chicago and Gabriel Debenedetti in New York; Editing by Jan Paschal)



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Fear of Fighting Haunts Once-Tranquil Damascus


Muzaffar Salman/Reuters


Damascenes cling to the hope that the ethnic strife that has deepened when fighting has reached other areas will not arise in their city.







DAMASCUS, Syria — Business has been terrible for Abu Tareq, a taxi driver, so last week, without telling his wife, he agreed to drive a man to the Damascus airport for 10 times the usual rate. But, he said later, he will not be doing that again.




On the airport road, he could hear the crash of artillery and the whiz of sniper fire. Dead rebels and soldiers lay on the roadsides. Abu Tareq saw a dog eating the body of a soldier.


“I will never forget this sight,” said Abu Tareq, 50, who gave only a nickname for safety reasons. “It is the road of the dead.”


Damascus, Syria’s capital, is one of the world’s oldest continuously inhabited cities, a touchstone of history and culture for the entire region. Through decades of political repression, the city preserved, at least on the surface, an atmosphere of tranquillity, from its wide downtown avenues to the spacious, smooth-stoned courtyard of the Umayyad Mosque and the vine-draped alleys of the Old City, where restaurants and bars tucked between the storehouses of medieval merchants hummed with quiet conversation.


Now, though, the rumble of distant artillery echoes through the city, and its residents are afraid to leave their neighborhoods. Cocooned behind rows of concrete blocks that close off routes to the center, they huddle in fear of a prolonged battle that could bring destruction and division to a place where secular and religious Syrians from many sects — Sunni, Shiite, Alawite, Christian and others — have long lived peacefully.


For more than a week, Syrian rebels and government forces have fought for the airport road, as the military tries to seal off the capital city, the core of President Bashar al-Assad’s power, from a semicircle of rebellious suburbs. Rebels have now kept the pressure on the government for as long as they did during their previous big push toward Damascus last summer. This time, improved supply lines and tactics, some rebels and observers say, may provide a more secure foothold.


But the security forces wield overwhelming firepower, and while it has been unable to subdue the suburbs, some rebel fighters say they lack the intelligence information, arms and communication to advance. That raises the specter of a destructive standoff like the one that has devastated the commercial hub of Aleppo.


“Damascus was the city of jasmine,” Mahmoud, 40, a public-school teacher, said in an interview in the capital. “It is not the city I knew just a few weeks ago.”


Car bombs have ripped through neighborhoods, their targets and perpetrators only guessed at. Checkpoints choke traffic, turning 20-minute jaunts into three-hour ordeals. Wealthy residents find it quicker and safer to drive to Beirut, Lebanon, for a weekend trip than to the Old City.


Shells have been fired from Mount Qasioun overlooking Damascus, a favorite destination from which to admire the city’s sparkling lights. West of downtown, where the palace stands on a plateau, things are relatively quiet. But from the mountain, puffs of smoke can now be seen over suburbs in an arc from northeast to southwest.


Mahmoud, unable to find heating oil and medicine for his sick wife, said his grocer has lectured him daily on shortages and soaring prices. The once-ubiquitous government, he said, now appears to have no role beyond flooding streets with soldiers and security officers, “who are sometimes good and sometimes rude.”


People with roots in other towns have left, he said, “but what about me, who is a Damascene, and has no other city?”


The sense of claustrophobia has grown as rebels have declared the airport a legitimate target and the government has blocked Baghdad Street, a main avenue out of the city. On Sunday, it blocked the highway south to Dara’a.


In some outlying neighborhoods and nearby suburbs, the front lines seem to be hardening.


On the route into Qaboun, a neighborhood less than two miles from the center of Damascus, the last government checkpoint in recent days was near the municipal building. Less than a quarter-mile on, rebels controlled the area around the Grand Mosque.


An employee of The New York Times reported from Damascus, Syria, and Anne Barnard from Beirut, Lebanon. Neil MacFarquhar contributed reporting from Beirut.



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Tim McGraw and Faith Hill Kick Off Special Series of Las Vegas Shows















12/09/2012 at 05:00 PM EST







Tim McGraw and Faith Hill


Denise Truscello/WireImage


Tim McGraw and Faith Hill looked at each other, their hands on each others knees and shared a passionate kiss just after midnight Sunday morning.

The moment was a long time coming – it capped off their first weekend as a Las Vegas headlining act.

Earlier in the 90 minute show, McGraw told the crowd at the Venetian that he and his wife were going to "have fun tonight" and it genuinely seemed like they did, singing with each other for several songs while still letting the other perform their solo hits. Though the show – called the Soul2Soul series – is technically not the same "residency" show Las Vegas is known for, the couple will perform for 10 weekends through April.

At a press conference several months ago, McGraw and Hill promised a "personal" show, and they delivered in a big way. In fact, it got very personal as McGraw complimented his wife on her flowing black dress, saying, "It's gonna look good on the floor later."

The duo also took a moment to sit down and speak with the crowd. Though they didn't field any questions, they spoke about the most common questions they get asked. "We always get asked what was the music we heard first, who influenced us," Hill said.

Rather than answer it, the duo then sing a few of their main influences – Hill sang George Strait; McGraw sang The Eagles.

"I love doing other people's music, better than my own," McGraw joked.

With few bells and whistles, the show puts the focus squarely on it's two superstars, and considering the rousing ovations McGraw and Hill received Saturday, that's perfectly fine with their fans.

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Smokers celebrate as Wash. legalizes marijuana


SEATTLE (AP) — The crowds of happy people lighting joints under Seattle's Space Needle early Thursday morning with nary a police officer in sight bespoke the new reality: Marijuana is legal under Washington state law.


Hundreds gathered at Seattle Center for a New Year's Eve-style countdown to 12 a.m., when the legalization measure passed by voters last month took effect. When the clock struck, they cheered and sparked up in unison.


A few dozen people gathered on a sidewalk outside the north Seattle headquarters of the annual Hempfest celebration and did the same, offering joints to reporters and blowing smoke into television news cameras.


"I feel like a kid in a candy store!" shouted Hempfest volunteer Darby Hageman. "It's all becoming real now!"


Washington and Colorado became the first states to vote to decriminalize and regulate the possession of an ounce or less of marijuana by adults over 21. Both measures call for setting up state licensing schemes for pot growers, processors and retail stores. Colorado's law is set to take effect by Jan. 5.


Technically, Washington's new marijuana law still forbids smoking pot in public, which remains punishable by a fine, like drinking in public. But pot fans wanted a party, and Seattle police weren't about to write them any tickets.


In another sweeping change for Washington, Gov. Chris Gregoire on Wednesday signed into law a measure that legalizes same-sex marriage. The state joins several others that allow gay and lesbian couples to wed.


The mood was festive in Seattle as dozens of gay and lesbian couples got in line to pick up marriage licenses at the King County auditor's office early Thursday.


King County and Thurston County announced they would open their auditors' offices shortly after midnight Wednesday to accommodate those who wanted to be among the first to get their licenses.


Kelly Middleton and her partner Amanda Dollente got in line at 4 p.m. Wednesday.


Hours later, as the line grew, volunteers distributed roses and a group of men and women serenaded the waiting line to the tune of "Chapel of Love."


Because the state has a three-day waiting period, the earliest that weddings can take place is Sunday.


In dealing with marijuana, the Seattle Police Department told its 1,300 officers on Wednesday, just before legalization took hold, that until further notice they shall not issue citations for public marijuana use.


Officers will be advising people not to smoke in public, police spokesman Jonah Spangenthal-Lee wrote on the SPD Blotter. "The police department believes that, under state law, you may responsibly get baked, order some pizzas and enjoy a 'Lord of the Rings' marathon in the privacy of your own home, if you want to."


He offered a catchy new directive referring to the film "The Big Lebowski," popular with many marijuana fans: "The Dude abides, and says 'take it inside!'"


"This is a big day because all our lives we've been living under the iron curtain of prohibition," said Hempfest director Vivian McPeak. "The whole world sees that prohibition just took a body blow."


Washington's new law decriminalizes possession of up to an ounce for those over 21, but for now selling marijuana remains illegal. I-502 gives the state a year to come up with a system of state-licensed growers, processors and retail stores, with the marijuana taxed 25 percent at each stage. Analysts have estimated that a legal pot market could bring Washington hundreds of millions of dollars a year in new tax revenue for schools, health care and basic government functions.


But marijuana remains illegal under federal law. That means federal agents can still arrest people for it, and it's banned from federal properties, including military bases and national parks.


The Justice Department has not said whether it will sue to try to block the regulatory schemes in Washington and Colorado from taking effect.


"The department's responsibility to enforce the Controlled Substances Act remains unchanged," said a statement issued Wednesday by the Seattle U.S. attorney's office. "Neither states nor the executive branch can nullify a statute passed by Congress."


The legal question is whether the establishment of a regulated marijuana market would "frustrate the purpose" of the federal pot prohibition, and many constitutional law scholars say it very likely would.


That leaves the political question of whether the administration wants to try to block the regulatory system, even though it would remain legal to possess up to an ounce of marijuana.


Alison Holcomb is the drug policy director of the American Civil Liberties Union of Washington and served as the campaign manager for New Approach Washington, which led the legalization drive. She said the voters clearly showed they're done with marijuana prohibition.


"New Approach Washington sponsors and the ACLU look forward to working with state and federal officials and to ensure the law is fully and fairly implemented," she said.


___


Johnson can be reached at https://twitter.com/GeneAPseattle


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Wall St Week Ahead: "Cliff" worries may drive tax selling

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Investors typically sell stocks to cut their losses at year end. But worries about the "fiscal cliff" - and the possibility of higher taxes in 2013 - may act as the greatest incentive to sell both winners and losers by December 31.


The $600 billion of automatic tax increases and spending cuts scheduled for the beginning of next year includes higher rates for capital gains, making tax-related selling even more appealing than usual.


Tax-related selling may be behind the weaker trend in the shares of market leader Apple , analysts said. The stock is down 20 percent for the quarter, but it's still up nearly 32 percent for the year.


Apple dropped 8.9 percent in the past week alone. For a stock that gained more than 25 percent a year for four consecutive years, the embedded capital gains suddenly look like a selling opportunity if one's tax bill is going to jump sharply just because the calendar changes.


"Tax-loss selling is always a factor (but) tax-gains selling has been a factor this year," said Paul Mendelsohn, chief investment strategist at Windham Financial Services in Charlotte, Vermont.


"You have a lot of high-net-worth individuals in taxable accounts, and that could be what's affecting stocks like Apple. If you look at the stocks that people have their largest gains in, they seem to be under a little bit more pressure here than usual."


Of this year's top 20 performers in the S&P 1500 index, which includes large, small and mid-cap stocks, all but four have lost ground in the last five trading sessions.


The rush to avoid higher taxes on portfolio gains could cause additional weakness.


The S&P 500 ended the week up just 0.1 percent after another week of trading largely tied to fiscal cliff negotiation news, which has pushed the market in both directions.


A PAIN PILL FROM THE FED?


This week's Federal Reserve meeting could offer some relief if policymakers announce further plans to help the lackluster U.S. economy. The Federal Open Market Committee will meet on Tuesday and Wednesday. The policy statement is expected at about 12:30 p.m. EST on Wednesday after the conclusion of the meeting - the Fed's last one for the year.


Friday's jobs report showing non-farm payrolls added 146,000 jobs in November eased worries that superstorm Sandy had hit the labor market hard.


"After the FOMC meeting, I think it's going to be downhill from there as worries about the fiscal cliff really take center stage and prospects of a deal become less and less likely," said Mohannad Aama, managing director of Beam Capital Management LLC in New York.


"I think we are likely to see an escalation in profit-taking ahead of tax rates going up next year," he said.


MORE VOLUME AND VOLATILITY


Volume could increase as investors try to shift positions before year end, some analysts said.


While most of that would be in stocks, some of the extra trading volume could spill over into options, said J.J. Kinahan, TD Ameritrade's chief derivatives strategist.


Volatility could pick up as well, and some of that is already being seen in Apple's stock.


"The actual volatility in Apple has been very high while the market itself has been calm. I expect Apple's volatility to carry over into the market volatility," said Enis Taner, global macro editor at RiskReversal.com, an options trading firm in New York.


Shares of Apple, the largest U.S. company by market value, on Friday registered their worst week since May 2010. In another bearish sign, the stock's 50-day moving average fell to $599.52 - below its 200-day moving average at $601.38.


"There's a lot of tax-related selling happening now, and it will continue to happen. Apple is an example, even (though) there are other factors involved with Apple," Aama said.


If tax rates are going up, an investor would sell now to book gains and pay lower capital gains taxes, according to Aama. But if an investor has capital losses, then "you take losses and have them count against capital gains or regular income if you do not have any offsetting capital gains.


"In essence, higher capital gains tax rates will give your losses a higher value next year than this year as the income tax shield will be worth more in 2013. So if you have no capital gains this year, you are better off holding off on selling your losers in 2012 and waiting till 2013," he said in an email.


While investors may be selling stocks to avoid higher taxes in 2013, companies may continue to announce special and accelerated dividend payments before year end. Among the latest, Expedia announced a special dividend of 52 cents a share to be paid on December 28.


To be sure, the big sell-off in stocks following the November 6 election was likely related to tax selling, making it hard to judge how much more is to come.


Even with stocks' recent declines, the three major U.S. stock indexes are still up for the year. The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> is up 7.7 percent for 2012 so far, while the benchmark Standard & Poor's 500 index <.spx> is up 12.8 percent and the Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> is up 14.3 percent for the year to date.


Bruce Zaro, chief technical strategist at Delta Global Asset Management in Boston, said there is a decent chance that the market could rally before the year ends.


"Even with little or spotty news that one would put in the positive bucket regarding the (cliff) negotiations, the market has basically hung in there, and I think it's hung in there in anticipation of something coming," he said.


(Wall St Week Ahead runs every Sunday. Questions or comments on this column can be emailed to: caroline.valetkevitch(at)thomsonreuters.com)


(Reporting by Caroline Valetkevitch; Editing by Jan Paschal; Multimedia versions of Reuters Top News are now available for:; 3000 Xtra: visit Reuters Top News; BridgeStation: view story .134; For London stock market outlook please click on <.l>; Pan-European stock market outlook <.eu>; Tokyo stock market outlook <.t>)



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Shintaro Ishihara, Right-Wing Japanese Politician, Makes Gains





TOKYO — Shintaro Ishihara has been a rare, flamboyant presence in Japan’s otherwise drab political world for half a century. A novelist turned right-wing firebrand, he has long held celebrity status on the political margins, where he was known for dramatic flourish. He once signed a pact in blood to oppose diplomatic ties with China because of its communist government, and he published a book at the height of Japan’s economic power that lectured his countrymen on the need to end what he considered its postwar servility to the United States.




Now, at 80, Mr. Ishihara is leading a newly formed populist party and has emerged as a contender for prime minister, vowing to turn Japan into a more independent, possibly nuclear-armed nation. While political analysts deem him a long shot, they say the fact that he has gotten this far after decades of pushing what was seen as a fringe agenda is a worrying sign of how desperate this nation is for strong leadership after years of cascading troubles.


With his promises to restore Japan’s battered national pride, Mr. Ishihara has staked out an even more stridently nationalistic position than the current front-runner, Shinzo Abe, the leader of the conservative Liberal Democratic Party, who has called for revising Japan’s pacifist constitution. Analysts worry that if Mr. Ishihara succeeds in his bid to become prime minister, he could weaken relations with the United States, yank Japan to the right and damage ties with China, which is already angered by his almost single-handedly rekindling a territorial dispute over an island chain.


But even in the likely event that Mr. Ishihara loses, they say, his campaign could still have a lasting effect, bringing patriotic populism into the political mainstream of a nation that has shunned such open jingoism since its devastating defeat in World War II.


“This election will be a test of whether Japan is really losing its dovishness,” said Takeshi Sasaki, a politics professor at Gakushuin University in Tokyo. “There is so much irritation at how everything seems to be going wrong, and Japan is losing its pride. Politicians on the right like Ishihara and Abe are trying to fan these flames.”


The rise of the two hard-liners has already contributed to hand-wringing among liberals who are anxious that the foreboding sense that Japan is fast becoming an international has-been has left the Japanese vulnerable to long-suppressed nationalism. Even those who call those fears overblown acknowledge that anti-China feelings, which could be easily exploited, are rising as that country eclipses Japan, builds a formidable military and makes its territorial ambitions clear.


From Mr. Ishihara’s vantage point, those geopolitical realities make now the perfect time for Japan to put him in charge.


“Here I am, the old man who has run amok!” he bellowed to a wave of applause at a recent campaign appearance in front of Shinjuku train station in Tokyo. “I am 80 years old, and I am standing here because I want to break through the indecisive and barren politics that is stifling Japan!”


A tall, bespectacled figure, Mr. Ishihara spent most of his short speech emphasizing what has become the central campaign message of his Japan Restoration Party: offering forceful leadership to end Japan’s long political drift by breaking the grip of bureaucrats and vested interests.


Much of the party’s message, however, has become vintage Ishihara. He goes further than Mr. Abe, calling for an outright scrapping of Japan’s antiwar constitution, written by its postwar American occupiers. He still speaks about ending what he sees as political and cultural subservience to the United States and pledges to resist Chinese territorial appetites, promising to build permanent structures on the disputed islands in a move likely to further antagonize China.


“I cannot allow myself to die until my Japan, which has been made a fool of by China, and seduced as a mistress by the United States, is able to stand up again as a stronger, more beautiful nation,” Mr. Ishihara said last month to reporters, explaining why he resigned after 13 years as Tokyo’s governor to return to national politics. He did so after being asked to lead the fledgling Restoration Party’s slate in this month’s parliamentary election by its founder, the popular mayor of Osaka who did not yet want to run for national office.


So far, polls show that Mr. Ishihara has only limited appeal. His party’s approval ratings are in the low teens, about the same as the unpopular incumbent Democratic Party, but below Mr. Abe’s Liberal Democrats, who poll only slightly better, at around 20 percent. Polls also show that more than half of voters disapprove of Mr. Ishihara and of scrapping the antiwar clause of Japan’s constitution.


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